To learn of California's decarbonization plans in order to confirm whether the state will see a 40-50% rise in electricity load as a result of electric vehicle adoption.
Increase in Electric Load
Southern California Edison plans 100% decarbonization by 2045. The decarbonization will be achieved through the 100% carbon-free electricity retail sales, electrification of vehicles, and "using low-carbon fuels
for technologies that are not viable for electrification".
The electrification (and population growth) will result in an increase in the sale of electricity by 60% and "a 40% increase in peak load".
Vehicle electrification will result in an increase
in "electric load by nearly 130 terawatt hours
(TWh) — representing more than one-third of
the grid-served load".
Renewable Energy Adoption
In order to achieve 100% clean energy generation, over "80 GW of
additional utility-scale clean generation
and 30 GW of utility-scale energy storage will be needed".
This would require investments to the tune of $170 billion in renewable energy. That means rate of development of renewable energy infrastructure will need to be two to three times the current rate.
Degree of Electrification
Natural gas consumption will decline by 50% by 2045 and "at least 40% of" it will "need to be low-carbon fuels such as
biomethane or hydrogen".
Seventy-five percent of "space and water heating needs" will be electrified by 2045.
GHG Emission Reductions
Greenhouse gas emission will be reduced from 424 MMT in 2017 to 260MMT in 2030 (60% decarbonization target) and 108 MMT in 2045, all of which will be sequestered, thereby achieving 100% decarbonization. A total reduction of 316 MMT (424 MMT-108 MMT).
The GHG emission of vehicles will be reduced from 174 MMT in 2017 to 107 MMT in 2030 and 30 MMT in 2045. A reduction of 144 MMT--45.6% of all GHG emissions--through electrification of vehicles.
North America accounts for 70% of the 30 million tons of carbon emissions captured globally. Currently, industrial facilities capture under 1% of the "CO2 that is required to meet the Paris agreement targets for 2040".
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