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Research Outline
Prepared for Grant B. | Delivered February 9, 2020
Electrification in California
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Goals
To learn of California's decarbonization plans in order to confirm whether the state will see a 40-50% rise in electricity load as a result of electric vehicle adoption.
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Early Findings
Increase in Electric Load
Southern California Edison plans
100%
decarbonization by 2045. The decarbonization will be achieved through the
100%
carbon-free electricity retail sales, electrification of vehicles, and "using low-carbon fuels for technologies that are not viable for electrification".
The electrification (and population growth) will result in an increase in the sale of electricity by
60%
and "a
40%
increase in peak load".
Vehicle electrification will result in an increase in "electric load by nearly
130 terawatt hours
(TWh) — representing more than one-third of the grid-served load".
Renewable Energy Adoption
In order to achieve
100%
clean energy generation, over "
80 GW
of additional utility-scale clean generation and
30 GW
of utility-scale energy storage will be needed".
This would require investments to the tune of
$170 billion
in renewable energy. That means rate of development of renewable energy infrastructure will need to be
two to three
times the current rate.
Degree of Electrification
Natural gas consumption will decline by
50%
by 2045 and "at least
40%
of" it will "need to be low-carbon fuels such as biomethane or hydrogen".
Three in four
light-duty vehicles,
two in three
medium-duty vehicles, and
one in three
heavy-duty vehicles will need to be electrified by 2045.
Seventy-five
percent of "space and water heating needs" will be electrified by 2045.
GHG Emission Reductions
Greenhouse gas emission will be reduced from
424 MMT
in 2017 to
260MMT
in 2030 (
60%
decarbonization target) and
108 MMT
in 2045, all of which will be sequestered, thereby achieving 100% decarbonization. A total reduction of 316 MMT (
424 MMT
-
108 MMT
).
The GHG emission of vehicles will be reduced from
174 MMT
in 2017 to
107 MMT
in 2030 and
30 MMT
in 2045. A reduction of 144 MMT--45.6% of all GHG emissions--through electrification of vehicles.
Additional Information
Nearly half (
49.14%
) the vehicles in Norway are
plug-in electric
type.
North America accounts for
70%
of the
30 million
tons of carbon emissions captured globally. Currently, industrial facilities capture under
1%
of the "CO2 that is required to meet the Paris agreement targets for 2040".
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