Electrical Load Growth

Goals

To get a statistical analysis of the de-carbonization goals and their mandates in CA, with a further detailed analysis of the electrical load growth fueled by transport electrification.

Early Findings

Our first round of research unveiled the following information:
  • "By 2045, significant electrification of the state’s economy combined with population and economic growth will result in a 60% increase in electricity sales from the grid and a 40% increase in peak load."
  • "From 2030 to 2045, grid investments of up to $75 billion will be required to integrate bulk renewable generation and storage and serve the load growth associated with transportation and building electrification."
  • "Transportation electrification will increase electric load by nearly 130 terawatt hours (TWh) — representing more than one-third of the grid-served load"
  • "Building electrification will increase electric load nearly 50 TWh by 2045 — representing almost 15% of the total 2045 grid load. "
  • "Meanwhile, electric load from transportation electrification is likely to grow nearly tenfold between 2017 and 2030, potentially creating the need for additional energy resources."
  • " Electric vehicle load growth is expected to increase rapidly as a result and is targeted to make up a significant portion of SCE’s served customer load."

Summary of Findings

  • Our first round of research was unable to provide direct values for the growth percentage of electric load in CA by 2020. We have located several reports citing the Southern California Edison, State Energy Commission, and several other reputable sources; however, none of them have provided explicit figures of growth of electric load in CA by 2020 that is fueled by transport electrification. While we were unable to locate the data, propose further research for answering the other parts of the research question.

Proposed next steps:

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