Demand

• Based on a report published in May 2019, global sugar demand is expected to rise due to increases in consumption in Egypt, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan. In turn, this will cause sugar stock in India, China, Pakistan, and Thailand to decrease.
• That same report projected consumption to increase for the USA, Brazil, and Mexico but decrease in the European Union and remain flat in China.
• However, more recent sources published in August 2019 state that global demand may be declining.

Supply

• According to a report published in May 2019, for marketing year 2019/2020, global supply of sugar is forecast to increase by 2 million tons to 181 million tons (raw value).
• This same report stated that this increase is being driven by higher production in Brazil and the EU, which is offsetting a decline in production of 8% in India.
• However, more recent sources, published 08/06/2019, indicate that production will decline for 2019/2020.
• The head of the International Sugar Organization, Jose Orive, indicated that he expects a "global sugar deficit of about 3.5 million tonnes in 2019-20, growing to nearly 6 million tonnes in 2020-21."

Prices

• As of July 2019, the price per pound of refined sugar on the global market was USD 14.60 cents per pound. For the entire second quarter of 2019, the average price was USD 15.04 cents per pound.
• According to a report published April 2019, per kilogram, global commodity sugar was at USD $0.28 in March 2019. This is projected to increase to USD $0.29 by 2020 and USD $0.30 by 2021.
• On August 8th, 2019, Sugar #11, considered "the benchmark for trading raw sugar around the world", was trading at 11.41 USc (updated every minute, so price may fluctuate).

Market Outlook (Risks and Opportunities)

• The global sugar market has been struggling since 2018 with record-low prices (down to nearly USD 10 cents per pound in September 2018).
• These low prices caused many governments to increase sugar subsidies, which led to an overproduction of sugar and now high stocks.
• It is forecast that prices may begin to recover, however, it will be a slow recovery as sugar stocks need to decrease before prices will increase.
• General market uncertainty is due to unpredictable weather conditions and the potential for government policy to impact the market.
• In recent years, the market has been hard hit by "the war against sugar," which has led to decreasing consumption.