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Research Outline
Prepared for Jeffrey F. | Delivered March 20, 2020
Luxury Collectors Market in COVID-19
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Goals
To help support the assumption that luxury collector assets hold their value over periods of economic volatility by researching how the luxury collectors market has been affected by COVID-19, specifically the asset classes of watches, art, and cars.
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Early Findings
Watches
Cancellations
of auctions/shows have been noticeable in the watch industry.
B
a
s
e
l
w
o
r
l
d
and Watches & Wonders Geneva
both
c
a
n
c
e
l
l
e
d
or postponed their shows, which are two of the largest watch events in the world.
Since the art world has seen benefits in moving shows to virtual showcases in the past, the
watch industry
may follow this pattern to combat the financial issues from COVID-19.
Art
Artworks
are discretionary purchases, meaning you don't need them but want them.
Typically,
sales
drop off when consumer confidence waivers and the purchasing of fine art is tied to the performance of a buyer's investment portfolio.
In
contrast to this connection
, buyers during the COVID-19 pandemic have not "fled from major art-market events." The
sales
for the art shows in February at Frieze Los Angeles, Felix, and ADAA Art shows were high.
While there is some positive information, many
art handlers
are facing economic and financial hardships due to the closure of museums and galleries.
Frieze New York
was scheduled to open on May 6, but has been postponed.
A
r
t
n
e
t
News
conducted a study and found that luxury art even sold for great prices during recession times, such as in 2008-2009. While the market dropped in
2009
, it still saw some major purchases.
Art galleries have moved their showings to
virtual platforms
, which has proven to be a success for many galleries in the past.
Cars
According to
H
a
g
e
r
t
y
, the two biggest factors for the collector car industry are oil prices and unemployment rates. Both of these factors play a role in how much money people have and are willing to spend on cars.
H
a
g
e
r
t
y
predicts
the stock market and price of oil will have the first impact on the industry, with cars being worth less than $100,000 seeing a drop, but cars worth more than $100,000 will stay relatively the same.
Unemployment and auto rates during COVID-19
will have a slower impact on the industry and will depend on how long the pandemic and restrictions last.
The
Amelia Island
auctions were conducted without any issue, but many other auctions have been either
c
a
n
c
e
l
l
e
d
or delayed, such as Barrett Jackson, RM Sotheby's, and
M
e
c
u
m
.
Luxury Collectors Market
The luxury industry could lose
$30-40 billion Euros
in sales in 2020 due to COVID-19.
Summary of Findings
Our initial one-hour research found some information regarding how COVID-19 is affecting the luxury collector market. While there are some positives, in that these markets have faced a recession before, most of the information that was found pointed to the watch market and art market facing the biggest problems due to the high number of
c
a
n
c
e
l
l
e
d
shows and closing of galleries. However, the art industry has switched to virtual shows which may help continue sales.
The research showed the luxury car collector market will have a slower impact and some may choose to not sell their cars or buy cars until this issue passes.
Most of the information regarding luxury items during COVID-19 related to the luxury industry as a whole, with special attention to the luxury watch and fashion markets.
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