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Research Outline
Prepared for rachel16 | Delivered August 26, 2019
Multi-Industry Market Analysis
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Goals
To obtain the market size, growth rate, geographic distribution, and e-commerce/retail breakdowns for
c
r
y
p
t
o
currency, nicotine, cannabis, alcohol, and e-sports/gaming to develop a business model and formulate revenue estimates.
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Early Findings
Nicotine Market
The nicotine market is broken down into
three separate markets
. The markets are (1) tobacco products, including cigarettes, cigars and cigarillos, smoking tobacco, and smokeless tobacco; (2) vapor products, including open and closed vaping systems, as well as heated tobacco products; and (3) nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) smoking cessation aids.
Combustible tobacco products (cigarettes, cigars and cigarillos, and smoking tobacco) constituted
95.8
% of the nicotine ecosystem by retail sales in 2017. Smokeless tobacco products made up about
1.6
% of the nicotine ecosystem; followed by open and closed vaping systems,
1.5
%; heated tobacco products,
0.8
%; and NRT smoking cessation aids,
0.3
%
In 2017, cigarettes made up about
89.1%
of the global retail nicotine ecosystem by sales value. Combustible tobacco products are cigarettes, cigars and cigarillos, and smoking tobacco.
The estimated total global retail sales associated with the total
tobacco and nicotine market
comprises a growing user pool of over one billion individual adult consumers.
While the decline in combustible cigarette consumption is expected to continue, it is predicted to be, at least partially, offset by the
increasing consumption of PRRPs
(potentially reduced-risk products), in particular vapor, tobacco heating and modern oral products.
The latest global figures (2017) suggest that the THP(tobacco heating product) and vapor market is worth an estimated
US$18 billion
, while the oral tobacco and nicotine market is worth an estimated
US$12.5 billion
.
Although many jurisdictions have yet to implement clear regulations concerning PRRPs, an increasing number of governments are
passing laws
that allow and encourage the growth of these categories
The most recent estimates for the global tobacco market (2017) indicate it is worth approximately
US$785 billion
(excluding China). More than
US$700 billion
of this comes from the sale of conventional cigarettes, with over
5,400 billion cigarettes
consumed per year. While combustible cigarettes remains the largest category, their volumes have seen a gradual fall over many years driven by increased regulation and changing societal attitudes. Although this is a trend which is predicted to continue, the growth of new categories of potentially reduced-risk tobacco and nicotine products is expected to, at least partially, offset this decline in combustible tobacco products.
By
U.S. Census region,
prevalence of cigarette smoking among U.S. adults is highest among people living in the Midwest (22.2%) and the South (22.7%), and lowest among those living in the Northeast (20.1%) and West (16.3%) regions.
By
county population types
, prevalence of cigarette smoking among U.S. adults is highest among those living in rural areas (28.5%) and urban areas (25.1%), and lowest among those living in small metropolitan areas (22.0%) and large metropolitan areas (18.3%).
The proportion of current cigarette smokers who report
smoking daily
is highest among smokers living in the Midwest (68.3%), and lowest among those in the West (56.9%).
The percentages of people who
smoke globally
are as follows: Europe (29.4%), Western Pacific (24.5%), Eastern Mediterranean (18.1%), South East Asia (16.9%), Americas (16.9%), and Africa (9.8%).
T
h
e
attached
Google Doc
shares graphs for the global retail value, global cigarette volume, category rates by retail growth, and retail sales by country.
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