Multi-Industry Market Analysis

Goals

To obtain the market size, growth rate, geographic distribution, and e-commerce/retail breakdowns for crypto currency, nicotine, cannabis, alcohol, and e-sports/gaming to develop a business model and formulate revenue estimates.

Early Findings

Nicotine Market

  • The nicotine market is broken down into three separate markets. The markets are (1) tobacco products, including cigarettes, cigars and cigarillos, smoking tobacco, and smokeless tobacco; (2) vapor products, including open and closed vaping systems, as well as heated tobacco products; and (3) nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) smoking cessation aids.
  • Combustible tobacco products (cigarettes, cigars and cigarillos, and smoking tobacco) constituted 95.8% of the nicotine ecosystem by retail sales in 2017. Smokeless tobacco products made up about 1.6% of the nicotine ecosystem; followed by open and closed vaping systems, 1.5%; heated tobacco products, 0.8%; and NRT smoking cessation aids, 0.3%
  • In 2017, cigarettes made up about 89.1% of the global retail nicotine ecosystem by sales value. Combustible tobacco products are cigarettes, cigars and cigarillos, and smoking tobacco.
  • The estimated total global retail sales associated with the total tobacco and nicotine market comprises a growing user pool of over one billion individual adult consumers.
  • While the decline in combustible cigarette consumption is expected to continue, it is predicted to be, at least partially, offset by the increasing consumption of PRRPs (potentially reduced-risk products), in particular vapor, tobacco heating and modern oral products.
  • The latest global figures (2017) suggest that the THP(tobacco heating product) and vapor market is worth an estimated US$18 billion, while the oral tobacco and nicotine market is worth an estimated US$12.5 billion.
  • Although many jurisdictions have yet to implement clear regulations concerning PRRPs, an increasing number of governments are passing laws that allow and encourage the growth of these categories
  • The most recent estimates for the global tobacco market (2017) indicate it is worth approximately US$785 billion (excluding China). More than US$700 billion of this comes from the sale of conventional cigarettes, with over 5,400 billion cigarettes consumed per year. While combustible cigarettes remains the largest category, their volumes have seen a gradual fall over many years driven by increased regulation and changing societal attitudes. Although this is a trend which is predicted to continue, the growth of new categories of potentially reduced-risk tobacco and nicotine products is expected to, at least partially, offset this decline in combustible tobacco products.
  • By U.S. Census region, prevalence of cigarette smoking among U.S. adults is highest among people living in the Midwest (22.2%) and the South (22.7%), and lowest among those living in the Northeast (20.1%) and West (16.3%) regions.
  • By county population types, prevalence of cigarette smoking among U.S. adults is highest among those living in rural areas (28.5%) and urban areas (25.1%), and lowest among those living in small metropolitan areas (22.0%) and large metropolitan areas (18.3%).
  • The proportion of current cigarette smokers who report smoking daily is highest among smokers living in the Midwest (68.3%), and lowest among those in the West (56.9%).
  • The percentages of people who smoke globally are as follows: Europe (29.4%), Western Pacific (24.5%), Eastern Mediterranean (18.1%), South East Asia (16.9%), Americas (16.9%), and Africa (9.8%).
  • The attached Google Doc shares graphs for the global retail value, global cigarette volume, category rates by retail growth, and retail sales by country.

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