Prepared for Jack M. | Delivered October 8, 2020
Physician Respondent Overstatement
To determine the rate of overstatement in pharmaceutical market research when stating they will prescribe a new drug for specialists and generalists, by locating 3 or more academic research papers or industry articles.
Overstatement in Pharmaceutical Market Research
Primary market research for pharmaceutical most often paints an
Discrepancy between preference share (the market share that primary market research estimates) and actual market share is often
Voice states in a white paper that nine out of 10 forecasts for newly launched brands differ from the in-market results by at least plus or minus
The standard approach to adjust primary market research is to use a
rule of thumb
, wherein forecasters dock a standard amount like 33.3 or 50% from preference share so that it more closely resembles market share. If this method is used, forecasters must make sure to consistently apply the same amount and not adjust amounts because they look too high or low. When this happens, it invalidates the research. Due to this, some recommend using scales that correlates verbal assertions to internal commitments, like the Juster scale. The Juster Scale is an 11-point scale with specific follow-through percentages linked to each point.
Another scale that forecasters can use as a template for preference share adjustment is the
This scale emerged from research on consumer packaged goods. It estimates the total volume of purchases per year based on individuals who make trial purchases and repeat purchases of a product within the first year.
Reasons for Overstatement
It is very difficult to
what the actual needs of a physician will be 2 or 3 years down the road when the drug is finally available.
The surveys assume there is e
to the drug from all patients, which is rarely true.
Feedback mechanisms are overlooked. For instance, if a physician
Furthermore, primary market research overlooks
if physicians start to prescribe a drug and receive negative feedback, that will impact their future prescribing. It also ignores counter detailing; once a product launches, sales reps from
competitors will present arguments on behalf of existing drugs. “As good as market research is, no matter how large your sample size or how rigorous your approach, it’s still a contrived exercise,” said Todd Johnson, senior director of forecasting at
Health. “It’s not reality.”
Articles Located During Research
These articles were located during research, but time did not allow analysis. They could be helpful when continuing research.
Primary Market Research with Oncologists
Demand forecasting in pharmaceutical supply chains: A case stud
Results of Initial Research
Initial research indicates that there is not an abundance of information on this topic, but data points were located that start to build a picture that the rate is somewhere between 30% and 50%.
There was no information located that differentiated between generalists and specialists.
During research, a good amount of information was located on the types of research to perform, best practices, and the biggest mistakes made during this type of research.
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