Economic Insights

Goals

To obtain detailed economic insights on the U.S. economy including recovery projections, key economic indicators, political/election impact, and the social impact on businesses. Additionally, projections for the hotels, senior care, and automotive manufacturing industries with a specific focus on Marriott, Choice Hotels, Extended Stay America, Sunrise, Hilton, Sunrise Senior Living, and BMW North America/BMW Plant Spartanburg when possible. Additional data needed includes a list of industries/businesses that have been positively (or at least not negatively) impacted by the pandemic, projected revenue growth for those industries, consumer trends, recovery projections for the consulting industry, impact on hiring of external consultants, and how firms are treating human capital.

Early Findings

U.S. Economy

  • Recovery projections were found from The Conference Board, the Federal Reserve, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Although these projections typically on look out a couple of years, it appears clear that there is plenty of data on the economy and 1,3, and 5 year projections should be readily available.
  • The U.S. GDP "decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020." The 2nd quarter GDP was $19.41 trillion.
  • The U.S. unemployment rate was 3.6% in January 2020, and decreased to 3.5% in February. Since then, the rates were 4.4% in March, 14.7% in April, 13.3% in May, and 11.1% in June.
  • Consumer spending was $13,851.2 billion in June 2020, which was a 5.6% increase.

Industries Positively Impacted by COVID-19

  • According to IBISWorld, some industries positively impacted, or not negatively impacted by COVID-19 are utilities; retail food & beverage; retail personal care; publishing, broadcasting & telecommunications; and some professional services (accounting, legal, and management consulting)

Summary of Findings

  • In our initial research, we only had time to research some basic information on the U.S. economy and industries that have not been negatively impacted by COVID-19. However, there is still more research needed in these areas.
  • We did not have time to address the social and political impact on the economy, revenue growth for the industries that are doing well, or anything related specifically to consulting firms.
  • Please note, addressing all of the topics of interest would result in this being a large project, and the following proposed next steps do not cover every topic.

Proposed next steps:

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