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Research Outline

Prepared for Anand N. | Delivered May 4, 2020

Robotaxi TAM

Goals

To determine the total addressable market (TAM) for robotaxis globally and in the US, especially those that will only fulfill trips under 6 miles.

Early Findings

There are a number of reports that detail the total addressable market for robotaxis. Below are some of our findings:
  • The global TAM for robotaxis could be worth $165 billion by 2030 and $7 trillion by 2050, according to a recent report by Mobileye.
  • According to another report by UBS, the global robotaxi market might be worth over $2 trillion a year by 2030.
  • In an independent report by Morgan Stanley, the firm estimates that the robotaxi industry could complete about 10 trillion miles in trips per year at the rate of $1 per mile, representing a total addressable market of $10 trillion by 2050.
  • The Morgan Stanley report also expects the industry to represent about 13 percent of US gross domestic product (GDP) when fully mature.
  • According to a publication by the US Department of Energy, 59.4 percent of trips driven in the US falls below 6 miles.

Projections for Short-Run Robotaxis

Based on estimates from Morgan Stanley and information from the US Department of Energy, we safely project the global TAM for short-run robotaxis (i.e., robotaxis that will only fulfill trips under 6 miles) to be worth 5.94 trillion by 2050 — that is, by calculating 10 trillion miles * $1/per mile * 59.4 percent of trips that will fall under 6 miles.