Robotaxi TAM

Goals

To determine the total addressable market (TAM) for robotaxis globally and in the US, especially those that will only fulfill trips under 6 miles.

Early Findings

There are a number of reports that detail the total addressable market for robotaxis. Below are some of our findings:
  • The global TAM for robotaxis could be worth $165 billion by 2030 and $7 trillion by 2050, according to a recent report by Mobileye.
  • According to another report by UBS, the global robotaxi market might be worth over $2 trillion a year by 2030.
  • In an independent report by Morgan Stanley, the firm estimates that the robotaxi industry could complete about 10 trillion miles in trips per year at the rate of $1 per mile, representing a total addressable market of $10 trillion by 2050.
  • The Morgan Stanley report also expects the industry to represent about 13 percent of US gross domestic product (GDP) when fully mature.
  • According to a publication by the US Department of Energy, 59.4 percent of trips driven in the US falls below 6 miles.

Projections for Short-Run Robotaxis

Based on estimates from Morgan Stanley and information from the US Department of Energy, we safely project the global TAM for short-run robotaxis (i.e., robotaxis that will only fulfill trips under 6 miles) to be worth 5.94 trillion by 2050 — that is, by calculating 10 trillion miles * $1/per mile * 59.4 percent of trips that will fall under 6 miles.

Proposed next steps:

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In our initial hour of research, we were able to identify several estimates on the global TAM for the robotaxi industry. We are suggesting research to identify or triangulate the total addressable market (TAM) for the US robotaxi industry, especially those that will only fulfill trips under 6 miles.
In addition, we are proposing a competitive landscape analysis of robotaxi companies covering their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT). We are suggesting we start by providing a SWOT analysis for Waymo, the leading robotaxi company in the world.