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Research Outline

Prepared for Suneet W. | Delivered September 11, 2020

COVID-19 & Top 20 GDP Countries

Goals

To identify the countries that are expected to suffer the most from COVID-19 (and inform associated stock selections) by identifying reports, analyses and articles that discuss the impact of the pandemic on the top 20 GDP countries over the next 3-5 years. If this data is unavailable, reports, analyses and articles regarding the industries that are likely to be most negatively impacted by the coronavirus outbreak would also be helpful.

Early Findings

The Economist Intelligence Unit

  • This past May 22, 2020, the Economist Intelligence Unit updated its forecasts for real GDP growth in 2020 for each of the G20 countries based on the anticipated impacts of the pandemic. The full details of this forecast data are available in a table at this link.

International Monetary Fund

  • This past April 2020, the International Monetary Fund published an analysis of the global impacts of COVID-19 and associated lockdowns. Specific projections for individual G20 countries related to their output in 2020 and 2021 are detailed within Table 1.1 of the report, which is located on page 7 of the document at this link.

Statista

  • This past March 2020, Statista published forecasts for GDP growth/decline for seven G20 nations (China, Japan, Indonesia, Germany, US, Russia, Brazil) based on four different pandemic scenarios. This full chart is available at this link.

Availability of Information

  • The initial hour of research indicates that while many credible institutions are forecasting the impacts of the pandemic on G20 nations as a group (e.g., The World Bank, Statista), pre-compiled information about COVID-19 impacts by G20 nation is also available.
  • Generally, these estimates are expressed in terms of changes to GDP.
  • However, these forecasts appear to be mostly if not entirely limited to 2020 and/or 2021, rather than through 2025.