Prepared for Einars R. | Delivered August 7, 2019
U.S. Natural Gas Industry
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Updated information on the U.S. Natural Gas industry, including the market outlook for 2019 through the first half of 2020, and existing & forecast expected demand/supply during this period.
The EIA predicts that U.S. dry natural gas production "
will average 91.0 billion
cubic feet per day (Bcf/d)" for the rest of 2019.
The monthly average natural gas production is expected to grow throughout late 2019 and then "
decline slightly during
the first quarter of 2020 as the lagged effect of low prices in the second half of 2019 reduces natural gas-directed drilling." However, this growth will resume by the 2nd quater of 2020 and by that time, natural gas production will average 92.5 Bcf/d.
By July 2019, natural gas inventories ended at
2.7 trillion cubic
feet (Tcf), which is about
than the previous year and 4% lower than the 5-year average.
In addition, natural gas storage injections during the "2
injection season will outpace the previous five-year average and that inventories will rise to more than 3.7 Tcf at the end of October, which would be 16% higher than October 2018 levels and slightly above to the
Recently, US natural gas has seen a decline in price. This decline is said to reflect the "
relatively mild weathe
r for the start of summer that led to lower than expected natural gas-fired electricity generation, which allowed natural gas inventory injections to outpace the previous
five-year average rate."
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects supply growth to moderate by late
2019 through 2020
. When this happens, natural gas prices will m
ost likely increase.
For the past few weeks,
natural gas demand
in the US has been expanding in annual terms.
Dry gas production in the US has been "
expanding in annual terms
for 112 consecutive weeks now, but the growth rate is weakening due to base effects." Dry gas production is projected to average
by the end of August and 91.05 bcf/d in September 2019.
In the US natural gas market, the first six months of 2019 was quite eventful as "
hit an all-time high, global export and import concerns impacted foreign relations and international demand
continued to grow."