Impact of COVID-19 on World Economy

Goals

To determine how COVID-19 has impacted the world economy to inform research in this area.

Early Findings

  • In an article published in June 2020, the World Bank said, "The pandemic is expected to plunge most countries into recession in 2020, with per capita income contracting in the largest fraction of countries since 1870." This has resulted in forecasts that the economies of developed countries will shrink by 7% and those of emerging markets 2.5%.
  • Forecasts suggest that every region will contract and be subject to substantial growth downgrades. East Asia and the Pacific is expected to grow by just 0.5% while the following regions are expected to contract: South Asia 2.5%, Sub Saharan Africa 2.7%, Middle East and North Africa 4.2%, Europe and Central Asia 4.7%, and Latin America 7.2%.
  • There has been an unprecedented collapse in the demand for oil, resulting in crude oil prices plummeting.
  • In October 2020, a global survey by McKinsey found outlooks on economic and company perspectives remained more positive than negative. 55% of executives felt economically things would start to look better in the next six months.
  • After a sharp decline in the first part of 2020, the global economy is starting to show signs of recovery, buoyed on by the prospect of vaccines and better virus management. It is predicted momentum will start to build.
  • A report by the Chinese Enterprise Confederation reported 95% of Chinese manufacturers had seen revenues fall due to the pandemic. Retail sales in the first few months of 2020 were down 20.5% on 2019. China suspended all retail sales for one month in February, with the exception of essential items. China's ability to control the spread of COVID-19 saw manufacturing return to full capacity; however, manufacturers continued to be impacted as the rest of the world has slowly gone into lock downs.

Summary

  • In our initial hour of research, we have spent time ascertaining the availability of information in the public domain relevant to the research goals. Happily, there is a huge volume of information available in this area. There is also a large volume of information available relating to the global economic recovery.

Research proposal:

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