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Research Outline

Prepared for Pratheesh V. | Delivered June 12, 2020

US Solar Power Market

Goals

To inform the sales forecasts for solar industry products by identifying any public statements made since April of 2020 related to the outlook of the US solar power market (in US dollars or megawatts) by the following companies: Cypress Creek Renewables, First Solar, NextEra Energy, EcoPlexus, SunPower, Mortenson, Blattner, Swinerton Renewable Energy, Black & Veatch, CSI Electrical Contractors, Solar Energy Resources, Primoris Renewable Energy, McCarthy Building Cos and Carolina Solar Energy.

Early Findings

Cypress Creek Renewables

  • After reviewing the Cypress Creek Renewables' website, the company's most recent press releases and all media coverage of the company since April of 2020, the research team determined that Cypress Creek Renewables has made no public forecasts related to the US solar power market during the past three months.
  • Notably, quarterly and annual reports from the period were not publicly available, given that Cypress Creek Renewables is privately funded by a private equity consortium.
  • However, a Bloomberg article published on May 11, 2020 was widely syndicated (e.g., EnergyNow, Finance & Commerce) and detailed information which implied that Cypress Creek Renewables may have lowered its forecasts for the US solar power market for the near future.
  • Specifically, Bloomberg reported that Cypress Creek Renewables and 8minute Solar Energy collectively terminated plans to build over 13 solar farms with a projected output of 2.5 gigawatts in Texas since March.
  • According to Cypress Creek Renewables, the company canceled plans to build a 200-megawatt solar farm among others to "focus on more lucrative projects."
  • However, Bloomberg reports that the reversals indicate that the "solar building boom" in the US and specifically Texas "may be going bust," with BloombergNEF solar analyst Tara Narayanan adding that the Texas solar market is now "collapsing."

Industry Reports

  • An initial review of reports by industry experts (e.g., Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA)) suggest that industry reports may be another, more comprehensive source of information on the impact of COVID-19 and other recent events on the US solar industry.
  • For example, SEIA reports that the US solar industry is expected to employ 114,000 fewer workers as of this month, marking a significant reversal (38% drop-off) from projections that the industry would gain over 300,000 jobs during the same period.
  • The SEIA also forecasts that the US will install just 3 gigawatts of solar capacity in the second quarter of 2020, representing a 37% decline from expectations prior to COVID-19.

Other Findings

  • We found some proprietary research from one of our data partners which may be helpful: The US Residential Solar Power Market: Size, Trends & Forecasts (2018-2022) (Daedal Research, $850)
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