Delivered September 3, 2020. Contributor: Melissa C.
To determine concrete demographic data since COVID-19 impact (deomgrapiccs, short-term rental stays, rise in road trips in the area, mid-week vacation increases) regarding investment opportunity for a new hotel project in the Joshua Tree area.
Joshua Tree, California, has a population of 6,980 (2020)- currently declining at a rate of 0.00% annually and its population has decreased by -5.85% since the most recent census, a recorded population of 7,414. Joshua Tree reached it's highest population of 7,811 in 2013.
As of May, San Bernardino County (Joshua Tree area) is one of few places in California where travelers can stay in a short-term rental property without risking the violation of any local ordinance. Officials made the call to allow short-term rentals and campground stays a day before Joshua Tree National Park reopened, anticipating an influx of visitors that would need a place to stay as they ventured to the park.
Comparison data for Airbnb: At year-end 2019, Airbnb data for Joshua Tree:
Average Airbnb Rental Income: $3,061, Average Return on Investment: 7.43%, Average Airbnb Occupancy Rate: 59%. Return on investment, as cash on cash return and cap rate, is also impressive. At 7.43%, Joshua Tree's average ROI is significantly greater than California's average Airbnb ROI of 2.37%.
A March 23 report by Airdna, a consulting company analyzing Airbnb booking rates and pricing, found that properties considered rural have seen significant year-over-year gains, while urban units have seen a decline- 73% of March Airbnb revenue was made outside of urban centers, destination-based hosts have lowered rates until summer to chase the 'escape-the-city' market, and for the first time in 5 years, booked rates are higher than advertised rates for summer months, suggesting high demand for these properties.
The park is located within both San Bernardino and Riverside counties approximately 100 miles from the Los Angeles metropolitan
area—more than 23 million people live within a three-hour drive of the park. San Bernardino County is expected to reach 2.66 million
residents by 2035, growing by approximately 27% between now and then. Riverside County is expected to reach 3.3 million residents by
2035, growing 33%.
Data for road trip trend reports is not readily available, but can be found through a pay walled source; however, In an LA Times survey taken April 17-22, 47% of respondents said they would be more likely to travel by car, an increase from 35% in data collected April 4-11.
Auto Club predicts more than 100 million road trips this summer among residents in the Pacific region, from California to Hawaii; travel will be down 17% — the largest decline in 20 years.
Market vacation trends (google analytics- alltherooms) as of August 2020 for Joshua Tree, CA: occupancy rate 79% up 3.95%, available supply 591 up 4.05%, revenues $3,738 down 28.4% (room rates $226 up 2.73%). Data for market revenue, nights booked, revenue per night, and booking time are located behind a paywall.
Only the project owner can select the next research path.